![]() ![]() The spreads and lines the books put out are usually a pretty accurate assessment of the probabilities, but that is not what wins them the cash. The sports books themselves are the handicappers, and they are BY FAR the best in the business. You probably consider yourself a handicapper. The higher the break even percentage of the lines you play, the less likely you are to make a profit. So here is the Fact to replace the fallacy. It has nothing to do with your handicapping skills, and a higher winning percentage actually makes you less likely to win money because it is a result of playing bad lines that place you under a HUGE disadvantage. The truth is, your winning percentage is directly tied to the lines you play. So obviously, it is NOT necessary to win over 50% of your bets to be profitable. And if you are betting -150 favorites you need to win 60% to break even. But if you are betting on +150 dogs you only need to win 40% to break even. ![]() If you are betting point spreads and totals, that is correct. Most people believe that they have to win more than 52.4% of their bets to make a profit. So let's expose some of the Fallacies, and replace them with the Facts. Until those fallacies are addressed, and corrective action taken by the bettor, the book will continue on it's merry way laughing all the way to your bankroll. The sports books weaknesses are hidden behind a number of fallacies that are assumed to be fact. "Don't believe everything you hear about sports betting." ![]()
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